Presidential war strategy

Barack Obama and John McCain each are engaged in a charge of the light brigade. Cannons to the left of the Cannons to the right, volley and thunder.

In predictable moves, both are maneuvering toward the middle. If both are successful, McCain will win the war of the General Election ballot box.

Obama's phenomenal success in the Democratic Primary was due to two factors: First, his ability to uplift the hearts and spirits of old political soldiers grown weary of the same old same old. They were profoundly disillusioned that Bill Clinton had spent their political capital to pass George H.W. Bush's political agenda of NAFTA and welfare reform without bothering to reinforce the social safety net. They were disgusted by Gore's twisting like a tortured wonk on lances of coziness with Chinese bankrollers and political consultants' admonitions to stop debating like Gore. And John Kerry knocked the rest of us out after he became John Kerry v.2004 when it came to everything progressives considered important and not the Kerry v. 1969, railing against the war in which he had been some heavy dues.

Second, Obama excited a tidal wave of fresh recruits who not only enjoined the battle of the Internet but actually showed up at the polls and beat the masters of insider politics in the caucus battles. This is a test run for them. They likely won't stay around to be fooled a second time if they feel their trust is wasted.

Ralph Nader's once again crowding the Democratic candidate on the left, might prove a plus for Obama and he should take advantage of that. He can push back without adopting any stances he hasn't already announced and still look more centrists. If Obama does in fact reach further right to emphasize the difference, again he will deflate support he already has won.

McCain must satisfy party die-hard social conservative that he is better than the alternatives (Barack and Libertarian Bob Barr.) And he must reach out to grab some of the so-called Reagan Democrats. That might be a reach, but Republicans have humongous financial resources, are practical, and most likely will show up to vote even if they have to hold their noses. And he doesn't have the kind of following that will be disheartened if he turns out to be just like other Republican candidates of years past, they've served the party interests pretty darned well. The religious right might abandon him, unsure of his commitment to their dearest principles. However, he retains that club of Supreme Court justice appointments to hold over them, a weapon they're not likely to beat into plowshares for the culture wars.

So all in all, Obama better stay audacious and lead a brave-hearted charge that moves boldly straight ahead without testing political winds.